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Yesterday trades Tuesday 8/31/2021 07:08:00 AM GMT Tweet

Available on trades section

Fields of Earth Wednesday 6/30/2021 04:55:00 PM GMT Tweet

From my father's side I come from farmers' family, growing wheat and corn. My grandad used to say - "All that land that you see is yours and one day you are going to work on it with the tractor." As a kid, I laughed because I dreamt about other things such as space, stars and other planets, thinking that one day I'd be a cosmonaut. But years have passed and I had never become an astronaut, astrophysicists or rocket scientist. Even I'm not a programmer, although I can write a few lines of code in javascript for instance. I've never become a farmer either or at least for now. But I do have a farm house as a retreat which as of yet I never managed to turn it into a farm business and source of income as I'd like to; however I am glad that I became acquainted with grains futures markets. Now trading wheat, corn and soybeans I feel so connected and fulfilled with my ancestors that do not regret about my path through life so far and when I look up into the sky I am glad that I stand firmly on the ground enjoying the view of space from fields of Earth.

Trading journal Tuesday 6/08/2021 01:47:00 AM GMT Tweet

Here will be posted day trades from each trading day - winners and losers as to follow strategy and mistakes. 


Expensive corn Friday 4/30/2021 03:02:00 AM GMT Tweet

Corn price doubled year to date leading grains driven by cheap money and inflation. On the other hand China corn buying increased due to souring livestock feed demand. Actually, China buying all that they can shifting now from corn to wheat for feed since prices are almost equal.

Corn seems a little bit lost at these high levels and it is hard to think it might continue going higher from here as the price is already too expensive - nether to go for ethanol production nor livestock feed. 

On the other hand, we have wheat that is too high at these levels as well; however it still has more room to go up, compared to corn.

Looking forward to next week grain market open. We live in interesting times.


Soybeans at highs Monday 4/19/2021 03:05:00 PM GMT Tweet

Soybeans are being traded at highs. It is seen in almost all commodity markets due to Fed policies of low interest rates driving commodities going higher. Next bubble might be a commodity one. 


 


How to trade corn (in general) 3/29/2021 03:35:00 PM GMT Tweet

The corn is one of the less volatile among the grains which makes it easier to trade and many say that if you can't trade, you should trade corn. Maybe that is why I'm into that market.

So how to trade corn?

The corn is planted in spring and harvested in autumn which makes it most volatile during that period of time. Traders, hedgers and farmers become very active during that time and they look for any threats that might harm the production whether it be the weather or any other factors and they will be very nervous and active during that time, bringing more liquidity and moves to the market. So here we pay closer attention at the supply - whether there will be good crop to deliver. On the other hand during the winter time there the market will be driven rather by the demand - whether there are enough buyers for the production that is already harvested and stored.

Currently being in spring, the planting season, we should discus the so called "planting intention" - USDA estimates how much acres US farmers are intending to plant with corn. This estimation will give us approximate understanding of the volume of the production in the end of summer/beginning of fall. But still this is just a rough idea and that is why it is called intended. The next important thing is to see what corn goes into production of - almost a half of the corn goes into production of ethanol (which makes bio-diesel) which make corn price very inter- and co-related ethanol and oil prices (higher oil prices - bigger demand for cheaper alternatives as bio-diesel). The other half goes for live stock feed and only a very small portion goes for human consumption. After corn being planted we start looking at weather during summer months. Heats and droughts in summer months in US mid-west are no friends of corn. Such news would damage the crop and reduce harvest yields which of course would drive prices higher.  Respectively good weather conditions in Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio would result in better yields and prices could go lower on bigger supplier. So to sum it up - the summer is about supply. Based on above the highs of corn during the year are seen during June and July; however this is just generally speaking and this is not a rule at all. The winter, on the other hand, is more about the demand. It is rather more quite time, less volatile without big spikes in price.

For me it is the most appealing trading corn using futures contracts; however the very same market can be traded as options, spreads, CFDs or ETFs whatever is best for the trader.


From cyberpunks to crypto-anarchists Wednesday 3/17/2021 06:00:00 PM GMT Tweet

Back in the days when I had encountered email encryption, I was so fascinated with the idea of sending and receiving anonymous messages that I had to dive deeper into this. Thus I installed a PGP software to my email client without knowing that it would lead to something bigger. 

Now from the perspective of nowadays' more and more technological society, I think that the cryptology has its bigger stance. Back there in the 90s I thought that the internet was truly free and anonymous. Now some 20 years later, it appeared that it was not the case. Currently, we are not anonymous and we are not free at all in the internet, being tracked and even spied by tech corporations and governments. But there is still hope that I and all we, cyperpunks, cling to. 

There in 2008 a remarkable invention was made - a person or group of people implemented and released as open-source software a digital currency called Bitcoin. The most astonishing thing was that it was a decentralized currency, a peer-to-peer network allowing people send and receive money without any intermediaries. And when I think about decentralization, it pops up to my mind the name of one of Russia's prominent anarchist - Peter Kropotkin who described the world free of central government, a world based on voluntary associations of people. And it sounds so beautiful! But we are still not there, not even near. So today we live in a world that is dominated by a very centralized small core of people.. 

How did we arrive here? I don't know but I know that it pushed us to invent such things as blockchain and crypto which would allow us to liberate from current state. The surveillance, whether it be analogue or tech-related, forced us, to try hide things, hide names, hide everything. This is the true origin of open source and cyber-cryptography used by ordinary person. There is the government or the corporation on one side and ordinary people, empowered by technology, on the other side, fighting the corporation. “Cypherpunk. It’s just a couple of people who have dealt with cryptography in a punk way, which is: Do it yourself. Don’t ask permission,” Smuggler.

We don't ask for permission because we believe that everybody should do what they want to do without harming others but having the freedom to do it. This way the cyberpunk movement evolved in practice to crypto-anarchy which in the end became a whole philosophy of using cryptology and technology to build communities that are invisible to the state and the corporation.


Stooq 3/17/2021 07:44:00 AM GMT Tweet

There is a very cool Polish web site for quotes and charts. It’s called https://stooq.com/ and I like it as it’s easy to use and charts are quite old-fashioned which appeals quite a bit to me. They also have a nice and easy-to-use mobile app. 



mini corn example Monday 2/08/2021 11:41:00 AM GMT Tweet

This is another example of trading mini corn futures. Mini corn $xc_f are good for trading with smaller capital or for strategies with bigger contract size. Once we have a valid break out, we enter 2 contracts. In our case long 2 March mini corn contracts. Setting stop loss and take profit targets. If the trade is in our favour, we can exit 1 contract at profit and reset second contract's stop loss at break even and let the order run in profit as much as possible. 

In below case there both take profit contracts were triggered too early and I didn't manage to let half of the trade run; It was a good runner though..




If you can't trade, trade corn 2/01/2021 05:51:00 PM GMT Tweet

It is well-known saying. If you can't trade, trade corn. That's all about me. As many traders, I've been all around the world of trading. Starting with forex and CFDs, going through stocks, finding the universe of options and finally settling at futures. At first trading ES minis and in the end ending with grain futures.

End-of-Day price quotes for Mon, February 1, 2021 

Symbol    Last    Change    %Chg    Open    High    Low    Volume    Time
ZCH21    549-2s    +2-2    +0.41%    549-0    555-6    539-0    202,570    02/01/21

I've been trading corn futures today. Especially the minis of corn. First of all when it comes to mini grain futures, it is good for trading with less capital but one always has to have in mind the lower liquidity and and bigger spread. 

They say that grains are easier to trade as there is less noise compared to indices for example and trends and break-outs are easier to identify. Mini grains are even more less noisy and quite slow-paced markets.

On the first chart of mini corn March 21 contract, after pit open, we are staying in side-lines and in first hour of trading, setting support and resistance levels at the low and the high of the day. As soon as the either one is broken out, we are placing an entry order. In our example it is sell to open limit order at $5.45 1/2. I also placed a stop loss order at high of the day of $5.55 and take profit somewhere at $5.30; however as price action showed signs of reversal, I decided to exit at $5.42 3/4.

From below chart it is clearly visible how market proceeded trading and bounced higher from the lows of the day.



What is needed to say that grains are not that easy as it is said and it is the same market as all others with it's own rules and flow. The most important is to find the market that appeals the best and stick with it. 

Today's trades:

Sell    1    XCH1    Limit    545 2        Filled    Entry    1    02/01/2021 17:32:10    545 2
Buy     1    XCH1    Limit    542 6        Filled    Exit     1    02/01/2021 17:43:25    542 6

Gross P/L    $25.00
Fees Comm    $(2.28)
Net  P/L     $22.72

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